The influence of fiscal policymaking frameworks on fiscal outcomes : evidence from the European Union

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation explores the potential of centralised, top-down procedural rules (alsoknown as budget-process rules) and independent fiscal councils to complementnumerical fiscal rules as devices for preventing fiscal profligacy. To this end, it studiesthe connections between fiscal policymaking frameworks and fiscal outcomes infourteen European Union countries in the years from 1998 to 2004. The fiscalpolicymaking frameworks of these countries contained various configurations ofnumerical rules, procedural rules and fiscal councils, and the study uses differences inthe degrees to which the countries complied with the supranational rules of the Stabilityand Growth Pact (SGP) as a measure of the efficacy of these configurations at preventingfiscal profligacy.The analysis itself consists of two parts. The first part – a cross-sectional analysis of allfourteen countries – uses a set-theoretic technique known as fuzzy-set qualitativecomparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify connections between various configurations ofthe elements of fiscal policymaking frameworks and the degrees to which the countriescomplied with the SGP rules. These connections are interpreted in terms of sufficiencyand necessity and used to identify pathways to consistent compliance with the SGPrules. The second part of the analysis consists of case studies of three of the fourteencountries (Finland, France and Ireland). The case studies are used to verify aspects ofthe set-theoretic analysis, namely the specification of the set-theoretic model (especiallythe influence of the preferences of policymakers on compliance with the SGP rules), theaccuracy of the quantitative measures of the efficacy of elements of fiscal policymakingframeworks, the explanatory value of the solution pathways and the country-levelrelevance of two hypotheses derived from the results of the analysis.The set-theoretic analysis finds some evidence of the efficacy of fiscal policymakingframeworks consisting of combinations of numerical rules, procedural rules and fiscalcouncils, but establishes that such multifaceted frameworks were neither necessary norsufficient for preventing fiscal profligacy. The study also shows, in tentative fashion inthe set-theoretic analysis and more forcefully in the case studies, that the preferences of policymakers were critical determinants of the effectiveness of all types of fiscalpolicymaking frameworks. Hence, it concludes that the potential of multifaceted fiscalpolicymaking frameworks should not be exaggerated. In addition, it argues that anunwavering commitment to fiscal prudence complemented by policymaking frameworkelements chosen to overcome specific incentive distortions is a more promisingapproach for preventing fiscal profligacy than such multifaceted frameworks per se.More generally, the findings of the study confirm the scope for using fsQCA and othercase-oriented methods to complement regression-based analyses of the effectiveness offiscal policymaking frameworks.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University