Maritime political risk conceptualisation and mapping of maritime political risk in order to improve management and mitigation strategies for the offshore oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Guinea

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Understanding a risk is the first step in managing and mitigating it. Maritimeinsecurity has been an integrated risk for investors in the Gulf of Guinea for manyyears. But what do investors know about the nature of maritime insecurity in the Gulfof Guinea, besides a general risk rating?This thesis conceptualises and maps the maritime political risks in the Gulf of Guineain order to give investors a better understanding of the nature of maritime politicalrisk for the offshore oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Guinea. This conceptualisationis based on identifying the actors and actions of maritime security, i.e. people createmaritime insecurity and identifying the people behind maritime insecurity providesvaluable information for management and mitigation strategies. These actors createmaritime insecurity by using a variety of actions, i.e. identifying these actions tells theinvestor more about the nature of maritime insecurity. However, there are also actorsthat contribute to maritime security and these actors use a set of actions to makemaritime security a reality. In summary, this thesis creates a maritime political risktool where one axis consists of actors contributing positively and/or negatively tomaritime security and another axis that consists of actions these actors employ.This is done by providing the reader with a strong understanding of the theory behindpolitical risk and conceptualising relevant concepts. The thesis contextualisesmaritime security, the offshore oil and gas industry and general political risks in theGulf of Guinea. On this foundation, the maritime political risk tool is created byextrapolating information from four political risk companies: Aon, Control Risk,Bergen Risk Solution and Risk Intelligence. The maritime political risk actors andactions are also identified. The maritime political risk tool is applied to the case of theGulf of Guinea. The conclusion is that conceptualising and mapping maritimepolitical risk can improve management and mitigation strategies.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University