Investigating the effects of a green economy transition on the electricity sector in the Western Cape province of South Africa: a system dynamics modelling approach

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Many of the global and regional crises – economic, social, and environmental – that are prevalent today can be attributed to misdirected investments that were made in the past. The current crisis that the electricity sector in South Africa finds itself in can be attributed to such misdirected investments. This current crisis in the electricity sector relates to electricity supply shortages and an increasing carbon footprint. This crisis has to be faced by each of the country's nine provinces. The Western Cape Province in South Africa has identified the green economy concept as a tool to transform the Province's economy to one that is more sustainable from an economic, social, and environmental perspective. This transition would include transforming the Province's electricity sector to one that is more sustainable and more in line with the green economy concept. Three key priorities of this transition include using gas power technologies as a transition fuel, increasing renewable energy capacity, and developing a manufacturing sector that can support the growing renewable energy industry.The difficulty of obtaining finance and prevalence of financial mismanagement in South Africa requires that such a transition be properly planned and managed in order for it to be carried out successfully. The system dynamics methodology was chosen to develop a better understanding of the impacts of different green economy policies and investments in the electricity sector of the Western Cape Province. This was achieved by developing a system dynamics model of the Province's electricity sector and simulating different green economy investment policies. Five scenarios were simulated over a 40 year simulation period, from 2001 to 2040.The results suggested that continuing on the current policy path would increase the gap between demand and supply, increase the carbon footprint of the electricity sector, and not provide growth in employment in the sector. Strategic green economy investments are expected to impact positively on a number of indicators across a number of sectors: electricity supply, renewable energy share, employment, and greenhouse gas emissions. A few points of concern for policymakers, regarding renewable energy technologies, were highlighted. These include the short operating life of wind and solar PV technologies, their low capacity factors, and their inability to supply base-load power. Other concerns that were highlighted include the expected growth in electricity demand in the Province, large investments needed for electricity capacity expansion, and the benefit of localising manufacturing activities related to wind and solar PV technologies.Overall, the study laid the foundation for future research on the topic of a green economy transition of the Western Cape Province's electricity sector. The usefulness of applying the system dynamics methodology to green economy transition research was also demonstrated. The study aims to provide relevant and insightful recommendations to the policymakers and stakeholders that are, and will be, involved in the process of transitioning the Western Cape Province to a green economy hub and the Province with the lowest carbon footprint

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University