Transnational dimensions of civil conflict severity

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In an otherwise broad literature on civil conflict little attention has so far been paid to actualconflict violence and variation in severity. Existing work is also hampered by a reliance on a'closed polity' model of the state, leading to disregard of the transnational dimensions ofinternal conflict, and by a dependence on over‐aggregated data. The present inquiry expandson the existing explanatory framework for variation in civil conflict severity by includingtransnational factors and characteristics of sub‐national actors. Data on conflict battledeaths are combined with recently available data on transnational ethnic linkages, transnationalsupport and neighbouring conflict as well as other actor and country characteristics.Results from ordinary least squares regression analysis indicate that support for rebel groupsfrom external non‐state actors increase conflict severity, while rebel presence in other statesis associated with less severe conflicts. In addition, severity increases with duration but witha diminishing marginal return. Internal armed conflicts are less severe in democratic andethnically polarised countries but rebel territorial control increases the level of violence.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University