A Model for consumer forces of food waste in the retail industry

[摘要] ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The growing world population places an ever-increasing demand on nutritionalresources. Therefore, it is important to minimise food waste at every level of the supply chain. In South Africa, with its increasing population and limited resources, food waste should be minimised at all cost. Little is knownregarding the extent of food waste at retail level in South Africa and the driving forces behind this. The aim of this study was three-fold. The first study aim included a literature review, structured interviews and also included theacquisition of retail data pertaining to sales, food waste and net gross profit.A literature review was firstly conducted to identify the main consumer forces driving food waste at retail level. Thereafter structured interviews with representativesof six major retailers were conducted to confirm the importance of these identified forces at retail level in South Africa. Real life data was obtained from 677 stores, within one of the largest retailers in South Africa,over a twelve-month period (June 2016 to June 2017). The second study aim was to make use of a sensitivity analysis model. The retail data was used to analyse the impact of two of the main consumer forces on sales, food wasteand nett gross profit. A regression analysis was used to validate the dataset used. The model was used to determine the ideal percentage sales for certainproducts in the presence of the two selected main consumer forces. The third study aim was to validate the sensitivity analysis model by implementing the model at store level. Four retail stores serving customers of different LivingStandard Measurements were selected. The study generated interesting data.The literature review identified five main consumer forces namely, fresh versus frozen, fresh versus UHT, high versus low variety, convenience product versus raw materials and country of origin versus local products. The representativesunanimously agreed with the consumer forces identified in the literature review and regarded fresh versus frozen and fresh versus UHT products as two of the consumer forces with the highest impact on waste at local retail level.These two consumer forces were then evaluated with a sensitivity analysis for poultry and milk given the fact that both these products represent produce with high volume sales influenced by the said consumer forces.The sensitivityanalysis model identified the optimal percentage sale of the desired product versus total sales to ensure a decrease in waste for the two main consumer forces evaluated. For poultry, the sensitivity analysis model illustrated thatfrozen poultry sales between 35 and 50 % of total poultry sales ensured minimal waste percentage between 15 to 18 %, with no adverse impact on netprofit. The optimal percentage sales of UHT milk were almost entirely determined by waste. Throughout a wide range of UHT percentage milk sales i.e.between 30 and 70 %, net profit is maintained and waste limited. In-storevalidation of the sensitivity analysis model over a nine-week period proved to be useful. The Living Standard Measurement of customers influenced the percentagesales in the presence of the studied consumer forces. The validation of the model allowed for individualised recommendations by the researcher to store management in order to minimise food waste and maintain net profit.This is the first study of its kind in South Africa that defined the extent of food waste at the level of the retailer, by making use of a sensitivity analysis model. The model provides retailers with a practical tool to determinethe optimal stock levels of various product groups, as influenced by different consumer preferences. The model will also help retailers to achieve a balancebetween reducing waste whilst maintaining net profit. One of South Africa's biggest retailers is currently in the process of implementing the model in various retail stores. Larger studies including medium and small retailers andmore consumer forces are needed to generate more data. Thus, aiding the drive against unnecessary food waste.

[发布机构] Stellenbosch University