A novel information geometry method for estimating parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution

[摘要] Accurate modelling of wind speed is very important for the assessment of the wind energy potential of a region. Thetwo-parameter Weibull distribution is widely used to model wind speed. Many different numerical methods can be used toestimate the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution function. This paper proposes the estimation of parametersbased on a novel approach, the Information Geometry Method (IGM). Non-Euclidean geometry and the Riemannian metric calledthe Fisher metric or the information metric are used in this approach. Differential equations derived from the Fisher informationmatrix are solved for the Weibull statistical manifold by the shooting method. The IGM is compared with the graphical method,maximum likelihood method, method of Lysen, method of Justus, and power density method. In particular, it is shown that thisapproach has a better performance than the other estimation methods according to the power density results for the periods ofthree years from 2012 to 2014 for Bilecik, a city of Turkey. Therefore, the IGM as a new approach used for the estimation ofparameters of the Weibull distribution function can be a good alternative for the assessment of the wind energy potential.

[学科分类] 化学（综合）

[关键词] information geometry;wind speed;Weibull distribution;parameter estimation;Fisher metric.