Time-dependent seismic hazard in mining.

[摘要] A strategy to determine the probability that a mining induced seismic event willoccur with magnitude which exceeds some specified value within a given time isinvestigated.The model allows for a non-linear frequency-magnitude relationship and aPoissonian distribution of seismic events in time. The procedure is alsoindependent of the method of mining and of the mining geometry.The model was applied to clusters of various sizes) starting from small areas on asingle reef and ending up with the entire mine as a single entity.It was shown that the model works well with large populations of events, but to besuccessful with small clusters, the retention of the Poisson distribution is toorestrictive and a non-stationary model of seismicevent occurrence in time will haveto be developed.

[发布机构] University of the Witwatersrand