Probabilistic estimation and prediction of groundwater recharge in a semi-arid environment

[摘要] (cont.) Our data assimilation approach also generates conditional parameter distributions, which are used to examine sensitivity of recharge to potential climate changes. A range of global circulation model predictions are considered, including wetter and drier futures. Relative changes in recharge are generally more pronounced than relative changes in rainfall, demonstrating high susceptibility to climate change impacts. The temporal distribution of rainfall changes is critical for recharge. Our results suggest that increased total precipitation or higher rain intensity during key months could make strong percolation peaks more common.

[发布机构] Massachusetts Institute of Technology