Residential mobility in greater Johannesburg: patterns, associations and educational outcomes amongst children in the birth to twenty cohort

[摘要] The United Nations has projected that Africa’s urban population will expand from fourthlargest to becoming the second largest of the world’s regions by the year 2050. Patternsof migration and urbanisation have therefore been highlighted as significant focus areasfor research and policy. Movement has the potential to result in improved living conditionsand well-being, but may also reinforce inequalities and conditions of vulnerability. Theseconsequences may pose particular risks in the case of children, and understanding thepatterns, drivers and outcomes associated with child mobility is therefore critical.South Africa provides an important setting in which to explore child movements. The shiftwithin the country from politically controlled migration to movement based on choice hasresulted in high levels of mobility both to and within urban areas. Children have beenshown to participate in such movements either independently or in conjunction withconnected adults. However, there is currently little knowledge of the patterns andconsequences of child residential mobility in South Africa, particularly within the urbanenvironment. This PhD thesis attempts to address this research gap.Data from Birth to Twenty, a cohort of South African urban children living in GreaterJohannesburg, was used to investigate three central research questions concerningresidential mobility of cohort children over a 14 year period. Specifically, the thesis aimedto determine the frequencies and patterns of residential mobility observed over the first 14 years of the children’s lives, to examine the associations with mobility of children over a set of domains relating to the child, the child’s primary caregiver, and the child’shousehold and to assess the relationships between residential and school mobility and a set of educational outcomes. Routine data collected over the course of the Birth to Twenty study was supplementedwith data from a Residential Move Questionnaire, administered to children’s primarycaregivers in order to validate and provide additional information concerning the children’sresidential movements over the time frame. The research objectives were achievedthrough the use of cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis techniques applied to thesedata. In particular, multilevel event-history analysis was used to model the children’sresidential movements over time.Of the 3273 children enrolled into the cohort in 1990, two thirds of the children (64%) hadmoved home at least once by the time they reached 15 years of age. Nonetheless, a thirdof the children had never moved, indicating stability or a lack of opportunity for movementamongst this urban child population. Mobility was found to be more likely amongstchildren whose primary caregivers had no formal education and who lived in householdswith fewer assets and less access to services, suggesting that residential movementwithin this group of children was more common in the context of disadvantage. Extendingthese findings to an exploration of children’s educational outcomes revealed someunexpected results. The analyses provided evidence of a positive association betweenchanges in residence and numeracy and literacy scores, and school mobility was found tobe associated with grade repetition, however, a negligible relationship was found betweenresidential mobility and school progression.In conclusion, mobility is associated with opportunities for some children in the cohort andchallenges or hardships for others. However, even in the instance of movementconnected to disadvantage, changes of residence did not prejudice children in terms ofthe educational outcomes investigated. This is suggestive of children’s possible resilienceand adaptability in the face of change and highlights the potential for mobility to influencechildren’s lives positively. The findings concerning the relationship between mobility andchild well-being run counter to trends observed in high-income countries and on that basis, the need for further research into dynamics associated with child mobility in otherlow- and middle-income country settings is highlighted. There is justification for monitoring child mobility in South Africa; mobility trends provide a valuable indicator of children’sliving situations as well as the spatial and social changes occurring in the country morebroadly. Keywords: residential mobility; internal migration; urban children; South Africa; eventhistorymodels; school progression; numeracy and literacy; school mobility

[发布机构] University of the Witwatersrand