Aggregate Economic Implications of New Technologies in Energy Industry

[摘要] This thesis studies technological progress in the energy sector and the transitionpath from fossil fuels to renewable energy, with a particular emphasis on the conse-quences to the whole economy. Currently, there is an active discussion regarding sub-sidizing renewable energy sources, which are often portrayed as the sole future sourceof energy and the driver of signi cant employment and economic growth. However,innovation in the fossil fuel sector and its continuing development can also be a gamechanger and should not be ignored.In therst chapter, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenoustechnological progress in energy production to study the optimal transition fromfossil fuels to renewable energy in a neoclassical growth economy. We emphasizethe importance of modeling technology innovation in the fossil fuel sector, as wellas in the renewable energy industry. Advancements in the development of shaleoil and gas increase the supply of fossil fuel. This implies that the parity costtarget;; for renewables is a moving one. We believe that this important observationis often neglected in policy discussions. Our quantitative analysisnds that theseadvancements allow fossil fuels to remain competitive for a longer period of time.While technological breakthroughs in the fossil fuel sector have postponed thefull transition to renewable energy, they have also created many jobs and stimulated local economies. In the third chapter, we use an econometric analysis to compare jobcreation in the shale gas and oil sectors with that in the wind power sector in Texas.The results show that shale development and well drilling activities have broughtstrong employment and wage growth to Texas, while the impact of wind industrydevelopment on employment and wages statewide has been either not statisticallysigni cant or quite small.Therst and third chapters question the current enthusiasm in policy circles foronly focusing on alternative energy. Chapter 2 provides some theoretical supportfor subsidizing renewable energy development. Here we develop a decentralized ver-sion of the model in Chapter 1 and allow for technological externalities. We analyzethe e ciency of the competitive equilibrium solution and discuss in particular dif-ferent scenarios whereby externalities can result in an ine cient outcome. We showthat the decentralized economy with externalities leads to under-investment in R&D,lower investment and consumption, and delayed transition to the renewable economy.This may provide an opportunity for government action to improve private sectoroutcomes.

[发布机构] Rice University

[效力级别] innovation