Calibration of the Rice magnetospheric specification and forecast model for the inner magnetosphere

[摘要] A quantitative comparison has been made between observed low-energy ($sim$1 keV $-$ 30 keV) particle fluxes in the inner magnetosphere (r $<$ 6.6 Earth radii) and those calculated by the Rice Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM). The MSFM, which was delivered on February 28, 1994, is an operational computer model of the terrestrial magnetospheric environment which is designed to facilitate US Air Force spacecraft operations. The model will be used as a diagnostic tool for spacecraft charging and other anomalies in a real time operational setting as well in post-event analysis. The MSFM specifies electron and ion (H$sp+$ and O$sp+$) fluxes of energies between 100 eV and 100 keV in the distance range of 2-10 R$sb{m E}$ on a two-dimensional grid.Comparison of CRRES observations from the August 26-27, 1990 magnetic storm with output from the progenitor of the MSFM, the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM), showed that the modeled electron fluxes were being depleted by the MSM loss algorithm before they could convect into the inner magnetosphere, thus creating an unacceptably large discrepancy between the output and the data. Based on the CRRES observations, adjustments were made to the loss algorithm which greatly enhanced the accuracy of the modeled fluxes in the inner magnetosphere, and these adjustments were incorporated into the MSFM.The MSFM was then subjected to an extensive test program in which the model was run for six unique magnetic storm intervals, and the accuracy of the modeled electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit and in the inner magnetosphere were quantified by calculation of standard deviations (RMS errors) between the extensive set of observational data assembled for each interval, and the model output. Overall, the accuracy of the MSFM electron and ion fluxes in the inner magnetosphere is quite good; the model moves roughly the right number of particles to roughly the right location. However, due to a fundamental lack of knowledge about the low-energy plasma environment in the inner magnetosphere, some inadequacies still exist in the MSFM loss algorithm which should be corrected when feasible to further improve its accuracy.

[发布机构] Rice University

[效力级别] physics