Exploring flexible strategies in engineering systems using screening models : applications to offshore petroleum projects

[摘要] (cont.) The present study implemented the use of such screening models for petroleum exploration and production projects. Through two simulation case studies, this thesis illustrates that flexible strategies can significantly improve a project;;s Expected Net Present Value (ENPV), mitigate downside risks, and capture upside opportunities. As shown in the flexible tieback oilfield development case study, the simulations predicted a 82% improvement of ENPV by enabling architectural and operational flexibility. The distributions of outcomes for different strategies are shown in terms of Value-at-Risk-Gain curves. This thesis develops and demonstrates a generic four-step process and a simulation framework for screening flexible strategies with multi-domain uncertainty for capital-intensive engineering systems.

[发布机构] Massachusetts Institute of Technology