The Nature and Consequences of Civil Strife

[摘要] Various forms of violence plague our society. While violence is ubiquitous, there is a lack of studiesthat analyze war upsurges in a more dynamic and disaggregated setting, study its relationship withthe country attributes, and its impact on the broader population. In Chapter 1 I build a conceptualframework to analyze violence upsurges in a more dynamic and disaggregated setting. Using thedata on the Maoist insurgency in Nepal (1996-2006), I propose a model that conceptualizes violenceas a spatial-temporal process. I nd that the key determinant of whether or not an area is drawninto a civil war is its proximity of the areas that are already engaged in the civil war. In Chapter 2,I exploit a unique set of education data from Nepal to assess the impact of violence on an importantdeterminant of future economic growth: children's educational attainment. I find that 3 additionaldeaths per 10,000 population (one standard deviation) from the mean reduces the primary andsecondary school examination passing rates by 0.55 and 0.53 standard deviations, respectively.Lastly, in Chapter 3 I present a scenario where differences in a government's innate ability leadsto differences in resulting violence. More specifically, I present a scenario where the inability ofthe government to fully comprehend the ramifications of their actions leads to underinvestment incounterinsurgency. A fully informed government is aware of the breath of consequences of its actionsand takes stringent action accordingly, whereas a myopic government engages in ad hoc responsesonly. I find that if having a revolution is a greater concern, a myopic government facilitates it,whereas, if government's use of violence is as undesirable, a myopic government is preferred. Theoverall conclusion is that an armed conflict within a country has specific characteristics that need tobe further examined with disaggregated data and tested against the economic theories on institution formation. Additionally, an armed conflict also has far-reaching consequences for a warring state's next generation, thereby making policies to address the loss in human capital a necessity to prevent future conflict relapses.

[发布机构] the University of Pittsburgh

[效力级别] Education