Fertility and the Bolsa Família Program: demographic determinants under conditional cash transfers in Brazil

[摘要] In 2003, the Brazilian government launched the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) to combat severe poverty and inequality. Much literature has explored the effects of the Program on human capital and related indicators (literacy rates, child labor participation, etc). Demographic literature focuses on whether the Program affects fertility, but this literature does not address household fertility decisions of the participants. The purpose of my research is to assess the determinants of fertility among the BFP population. This study uses cross-sectional data from IGBE’s 2011 National Household Sample Survey. Via the use of a multiple linear regression methodology it can be predicted that several variables significantly influence the fertility of BFP beneficiaries. Identification of significant variables that influence fertility decisions allows policymakers to focus resources to specific individuals and alter their fertility rates. Should policymakers seek to influence fertility rates (quantity), then, according to the Beckerian model, they also gain the ability to change quality (human capital).

[发布机构] the University of Pittsburgh