PREDICTION OF FUTURE SHORELINE CHANGE WITH SEA-LEVEL RISE AND WAVE CLIMATE CHANGE AT HASAKI, JAPAN

[摘要] We developed a shoreline change model considering the effects of the wave regime, sea level, and time heterogeneity. The model predicts the shoreline change under changing global climate conditions: sea-level rise and wave climate change. The model predicted the future shoreline positions from 2008 to 2095 at the Hasaki coast on Japan’s Pacific coast. The simulation results showed that the shoreline would retreat approximately 20 m by the end of this century owing to the rise in sea level; nevertheless, the wave climate change would not cause a worsening of the beach erosion, but would cause only a slight increase in the variation of the shoreline position.

[学科分类] 建筑学

[关键词] shoreline;shoreline change model;global climate change;Monte-Carlo method;future prediction