Strengthening the nonproliferation regime : using case studies to determine the potential of multilateral arrangements

[摘要] The resurgence of global interest in nuclear energy is fueled by growing energy demands, concerns of global warming, and the desire to diversify energy supply. In order for the nuclear renaissance to be safely realized, a number of concerns must first be addressed. Foremost among them are the dual-use nature of nuclear technology and the spread of nuclear weapons. As small nuclear power programs expand and new states introduce nuclear power into their electricity grid, states must decide whether or not to develop indigenous enrichment and reprocessing facilities that may be misused for a weapons program. One of the must discussed instruments to strengthen the nonproliferation regime and limit the dangerous spread of sensitive fuel cycle technologies is the multilateralzation of the nuclear fuel cycle. Through multilateral mechanisms, multilateral arrangements to the nuclear fuel cycle attempt to limit the spread of fuel cycle technologies by removing the incentives to do so. Concepts and proposals for multilateral arrangements have been around since the advent of nuclear energy in the 1940s but have received a lukewarm response from the international community. It is postulated that this response is driven by difficulties multilateral arrangements have in addressing all of the motivations for the establishment of fuel cycle facilities. An investigation is presented within to detail the most powerful motivations that multilateral arrangements may have been overlooking to this date. In order to achieve this, three case studies are performed to uncover the most powerful motivations for the development of fuel cycle facilities. The motivations are complex and include a variety of economic, political, and potentially proliferation related incentives. Brazil, South Korea, and Iran are chosen for the case studies because they are currently in the process of introducing sensitive facilities into their nuclear fuel cycles, or are strongly considering it. Following the description of the various motivations for the pursuit of sensitive fuel cycle facilities, an analysis is provided to determine which, if any, of the proposed multilateral arrangements are in best position to be successfully implemented. The study found that the establishment of regional nuclear fuel cycle facilities and centers offers the greatest potential to strengthen the nonproliferation regime by targeting the state;;s political power incentives. Supply assurances do not address the needs of any of the studied states, indicating they are not applicable to well-developed nuclear power states or those in possession fuel cycle technologies. Supply assurances do however, provide strong confidence building measures in the establishment of regional fuel cycles. Lastly, the development of multilateral spent-fuel repositories may be the most sure-fired way to prevent the spread of reprocessing facilities.

[发布机构] Massachusetts Institute of Technology