Romania Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy : Agriculture Sector Analysis

[摘要] This report is about agriculture sectorof Romania which is endowed with high quality naturalresources and tops the European Union (EU) ranking by theshare of the agriculture sector in the economy. However,Romanian agriculture has low productivity, and rural areasare disproportionally poor. An important factor in lowproductivity is the large share of small agriculturalholdings. The sector needs to consider adaptation to achanging and less favorable climate going forward, as wellas mitigate Gree House Gas (GHG) emissions. The impact ofgreen adaptation policies and investments on sectoraloutcomes in agriculture and related costs were assessedthrough joint modeling of water and agriculture. Theprojected decrease in water availability due to risingtemperatures will push up the demand for water forirrigation, thus increasing the already existingdemand-supply gap. Water sector modeling analyzed the impactof climate change on yields of nine crops over twelve basinsin the baseline scenario and found that rainfed yieldsmostly decrease under all climate scenarios, with a varyingseverity of impact among types of crops and increasingimpact over time, while the irrigated crops’ yields improve.Irrigation was found to be most significant adaptationmeasure providing the largest gains in yields. Twomitigation measures, both supported by the EU and theNational Rural Development Program (NRDP) are considered inthe agriculture mitigation analysis using the marginalabatement cost curve (MACC): minimum tillage and manuremanagement. The most effective adaptation measures forRomanian agriculture are rehabilitated and modernizedirrigation to restore irrigated production to currentlyrainfed areas and optimization of agronomic inputsaccompanied by high-quality extension services. Improvementsin good farming practices, like manure management andminimizing erosion through afforestation, can also reducevulnerabilities. Financing needs for the two recommendedmitigation measures–no tillage agriculture and manuremanagement--are low and are highly beneficial from the pointof view of sector efficiency. Finally, strengthening policyand institutional capacity is vital to support therecommended interventions

[发布日期] 2015-12-31 [发布机构] World Bank, Washington, DC

[学科分类] 社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

[关键词] AGRICULTURAL HOLDINGS;RISKS;FERTILIZER;FARM POPULATION;TEMPERATURE