Romania Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy : Transport Sector Analysis

[摘要] In Romania, as well as in many otherEast European countries, transport sector Green House Gas(GHG) emissions are increasing fast and their growth isexpected to continue into the future, accompanying theon-going economic convergence with the European Union (EU).The objective of the analysis was to assess the impact ofgreen policies and investments on transport emissions. Forthis purpose, the Romania Transport Strategic EmissionPrediction Tool (TRANSEPT) was developed. The outcome of theanalysis is a set of proposed green measures, their cost(investment and operational), and their abatement potential.The findings show that Green interventions in Romania leadto a significant reduction of GHG emissions growth ascompared with the Baseline and to a gradual decoupling oftransport sector emissions growth from economic growth, thusachieving the goal of transport sector mitigation. The mainmodeling outcomes include abatement potential, cost, and thecost effectiveness (cost per unit of abatement) of theselected green interventions for the period 2015-2050.Financing needs for the recommended measures in transportrise sharply between the Green and the Super Greenscenarios, but still remain modest, as incrementalinvestments within a large sector. As the last step of theanalysis, a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) provided aframework to present the outcomes of the transport sectoranalysis in a form useful for policy discussions. AsRomania’s motorization rate converges with that of the EU,transport emissions are expected to grow even if greenmeasures in the sector are implemented. To conclude, theproposed mitigation action plan recommends a set of actionson the basis of the estimates made in this assessment whereinstitutional arrangement and coordination are also critical.

[发布日期] 2015-12-22 [发布机构] World Bank, Washington, DC

[学科分类] 社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

[关键词] PARKING;TOTAL EMISSIONS;CYCLING;TRANSPORT SECTOR;ECONOMIC GROWTH