China/Russia 2030 : Implications for the Horticulture Sector in Central Asia

[摘要] In China, changing demographics, risingincomes and shifting consumer preferences have resulted inan ever-growing demand for food that is more varied,healthier and of higher quality and this demand is set topersist well into the future. According to InternationalMonetary Fund projections (2019), by 2024, Chinese percapita gross domestic product (GDP, in current prices) willincrease to dollar 28,450, from dollar 13,130 in 2019, andthe population will increase to 1.5 billion people (UnitedNations, 2019). The projected urbanization rate will reach67 percent by 2030, compared to 56 percent in 2015 (Goh etal., 2014). The growing number of consumers in China, thatare increasingly more affluent and educated, will continueshifting their dietary preferences to include more protein,fruits and vegetables. Central Asian countries are wellplaced to be more competitive in satisfying fruit importdemand in the growing Chinese markets and will reap economicand social development benefits along the way. Forcenturies, Central Asia has occupied a position of strategicimportance in trade between the East and the West. Theregion’s geographic location, natural resources, untappedyield potential, and the possibility of greater privatesector investment through policy reform create the necessarypreconditions for the Central Asian countries to increasetheir agricultural exports to China. As China places animportant role on meeting its growing food needs on dynamicagricultural trade and investment cooperation with theCentral Asian countries, this results in significantopportunities for the region to increase its presence in theChinese fruit markets brought by improved infrastructure andhigher cross-border investment. For example, according tothe recent World Bank report (World Bank, 2019), Belt andRoad Initiative transport projects are estimated to increasetrade by up to 9.7 percent. Countries that have acomparative advantage in time-sensitive sectors, such asfresh fruits and vegetables, are expected to be the biggest winners.

[发布日期] 2019-12-16 [发布机构] World Bank, Washington, DC

[学科分类] 社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

[关键词] FRUIT IMPORT MARKET;FRUIT EXPORTERS;MARKET ACCESS;RETAIL MARKETS;HORTICULTURE