Finance in Transition : Unlocking Capital Markets for Vietnam’s Future Development

[摘要] The Vietnamese economy has done well in2019. In the context of increasing globaluncertainty,Vietnam will most certainly be among the fastestgrowing economies in the world, with a GDP growth rate ofapproximately 6.8 percent. This rate is almost three timesfaster than the world average (2.6 percent) and 1.2percentage points higher than the average in East Asia andPacific, according to the latest estimates from the WorldBank’s Global Economic Prospects. This robust growthperformance was attained thanks to the contribution of twokey factors: export growth and domestic demand fromhouseholds and firms. The first factor reflects theperformance of the exports sector, growing by about 8.4percent between January and September 2019, which is lowerthan in the recent past (15.8 percent in the same period in2018), but three times higher than the global average.However, this expansion can be short-lived as it captures tosome extent the diversion of Chinese exports toward Vietnamdue to the trade tensions between China and theUnitedStates. As a matter of fact, the value of exportstoward non-U.S. markets increased by only 3.8percent in2019. The second contributing factor reflects the rapidexpansion of the middle class, as the number of peopleliving on more than US 15 Dollars per day increases by about1 million every year. The demand of the burgeoning middleclass has been met to a great extent by purchases of foreignproducts, as the imports of consumption goods have beenrising by about 15 percent per year since 2015. Thecontribution of exports and private demand to GDP growth hasallowed the government to maintain its prudent fiscal andmonetary policies. On the fiscal front, the authorities havemanaged to reduce their fiscal deficit (down by 0.1 percentof GDP) due to higher-than-expected revenues and a very lowexecution of capital investmentexpenditures; the latterhas been persistently low since 2015. As a result, thedebt-to-GDP ratio (the Ministry of Finance’s definition) isestimated to have declined from 58.4 to 56.1 percent from2018 and 2019. The authorities have thus been able torebuild additional fiscal space by reducing public borrowingby almost 8 percentage points of GDP since 2016, thoughlower capital spending has also depressed potential growth.

[发布日期] 2019-12-17 [发布机构] World Bank, Washington, DC

[学科分类] 社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

[关键词] CAPITAL MARKETS;FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT;ECONOMIC GROWTH;ECONOMIC OUTLOOK;MONETARY POLICY