External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars

[摘要] The authors combine an empirical modelof external intervention, with a theoretical model of civilwar duration. Their empirical model of intervention allowsthem to analyze civil war duration, using"expected" rather than "actual" externalintervention as an explanatory variable in the durationmodel. Unlike previous studies, they find that externalintervention is positively associated with the duration ofcivil war. They distinguish partial third-partyinterventions that extend the length of war, frommultilateral "peace" operations, which have amandate to restore peace without taking sides - and whichtypically take place at war's end, or at least whenboth sides have agreed to a cease-fire. In a future paper,the authors will examine whether partial third-partyinterventions - whatever their effect on a war'sduration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. Ifthat proves true, then even if interventions reduce thelength of civil war, they may do so at the cost of furtherdestabilizing the political system, and sowing the seeds offuture rebellion.

[发布机构] World Bank, Washington, DC

[学科分类] 社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

[关键词] BOUNDARIES;CIVIL CONFLICTS;CIVIL WAR;CIVIL WAR DATA;CIVIL WAR DATABASE