Romania Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy : Energy Sector Analysis

[摘要] This report is about Energy sector inRomania which is responsible for 58 percent of the country’sGHG emissions (except Land use, land-use change and forestry(LULUCF)), and is therefore critical for mitigation.Romania’s economic growth and energy consumption have beendecoupling since the early 1990s, and the energy intensityof the economy has been continuously decreasing, but it isstill high. At present, Romanian energy supply system isrelatively carbon intensive, but share of zero-carbon energysources is growing. The energy sector analysis and modelingwere designed to find the best solutions for Romania’senergy supply mix given the country’s prospective medium-and long-term climate change mitigation obligations. The keyfindings were as follows: (i) energy efficiency measureswill contain energy demand growth; (ii) as a result of thenew investments in the energy sector under the Green and theSuper Green scenarios, primary energy supply mix will becomecleaner. Under the Baseline scenario; (iii) new investmentsin the electricity sector will lead to a much cleanerelectricity supply mix; (iv) total costs for the energysystem are lower under the Green scenario then in theBaseline, but the Super Green mitigation targets require anexpense equal to the Baseline one; (v) electricity sectorGHG emissions in 2050 are 72 percent and 97 percent belowthe 2005 level under the Green and Super Green scenarios,respectively; (vi) GHG emission from the energy supplysystem as a whole would be 25 percent and 50 percent belowin 2030 from the 2005 level in the Green and Super greenscenarios, respectively; and (vii) Marginal Abatement CostCurve (MACC) shows that the proposed measures provide asignificant potential abatement level totaling in 2050. Theconclusions and recommendations were as follows: (a) Romaniacan meet the GHG mitigation obligations likely under the EU2030 framework in energy and electricity sectors at moderatecosts; (b) The prospective requirements of the EU 2050Roadmap, which requires at least 80 percent reduction inemissions overall and the virtual elimination of emissionsfrom the power sector, are both expensive and challenging toimplement; (c) Implementation of a set of aggressive energyefficiency measures is a key part of the Green and the SuperGreen scenarios; (d) a lower carbon path for Romania’senergy sector imposes significant costs and complex planningchallenges on the sector, in particular on power generation;(e) energy sector in Romania has the potential to become anengine of economic growth; (f) while this assessmentincluded a set of generally-agreed technologies at costsbased on today’s best analysis, both technologies and costswill surely evolve, and updated analysis will be needed; and(g) while long-term sector development to 2030 and 2050, thesubject of this assessment, is important, the governmentcannot be distracted from critical near-term sector reforms.

[发布日期] 2015-12-31 [发布机构] World Bank, Washington, DC

[学科分类] 社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

[关键词] EMISSION ALLOWANCES;WASTE;JOBS;TOTAL EMISSIONS;ENERGY INTENSIVE