Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Summer Heat

[摘要] Rhines and Huybers are correct that the decreasing number of measurement stations in recent years contributed slightly to our calculated increase of extreme summer mean temperature anomalies. However, the increased frequency of extreme heat anomalies is accounted for mainly by (i) higher mean temperature of recent decades relative to the base period 1951-1980, and (ii) the continuing upward temperature trend during recent decades. The effect of decreasing stations is shown by comparing our prior analysis with results using only stations with data records in both the base period and recent years (Fig. 1). The distribution is noisier, and the area with temperature anomaly exceeding three SDs during 2001-2011 decreases from 9.6 to 9.3% for the reduced number of stations (1,886 rather than 6,147), but our conclusions are not changed qualitatively. The temperature anomaly distribution shifts to the right and broadens because it is defined relative to a fixed (1951-1980) base period, during which global temperatures were within the Holocene range. We argue on the basis of accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica and rapidly rising sea level (now exceeding 3 mm/y or 3 m per millennium) that temperatures in the early 21st century are already above the Holocene range, and thus use of a base period preceding the rapid warming of the past three decades has merit.

[发布日期] 2013-02-12

[学科分类] 大气科学