Global changes, regional impacts : climate change in the Middle East

[摘要] In the Middle East, an area where pressure on water resources is intensified by political conflict and naturalscarcity, the possibility of future climate change loomsas yet another compounding factor. An integrated approach, taking economic, social, political and climatefactors into consideration, is embodied in theCLIMSOC model. Before using global model data for afuture period as input into the regional scale CLIMSOCmodel, the global climate model data must first be testedfor the present period. The work summarised hereexamines monthly preeipitation data from a HadleyCentre Global Climate Model, comparing it to an observed climatology, for the present period 1961–1990.The differences between the GCM and observed dataare examined with an eye toward systematic discrepanciesamong the different months, spatial patterns andoverall quantitative differences in preeipitation. Finally, a glimpse at future preeipitation, as estimated by theglobal climate model, is presented in the context of thecomparison results.

[学科分类] 自然科学（综合）