Impact of different emission inventories on simulated tropospheric ozone over China: a regional chemical transport model evaluation

[摘要] The importance of emission inventory uncertainty on the simulation ofsummertime tropospheric ozone over China has been analyzed using a regionalchemical transport model. Three independent emissions inventories, that are(i) emission estimates from the Emission Database for Global AtmosphericResearch (EDGAR) for the year 1995, (ii) a regional emission inventory usedin the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) programwith emissions for the year 2000 and (iii) a national emission inventoryused in the China Ozone Research Program (CORP) with emission estimates forthe year 1995, are used for model simulation over a summer period. Methodsused for the development of the inventories are discussed and differences insimulated ozone and its precursors with these emission inventories areanalyzed. Comparison of the emission inventories revealed large differencesin the emission estimates (up to 50% for NO_x, ~100% forNMVOC and ~1000% for CO). Application of the different emissioninventories in three model simulations showed minor differences in bothsurface O₃ in rather unpolluted areas in China and at higher altitudes(500mbar). In polluted areas, differences in surface O₃ are 30-50%between the different model simulations which seem rather small taking intoaccount the large differences in the emission inventories. Additionalsensitivity runs showed that the difference in NO_x emissions as wellNMVOC emissions is a dominant factor which controls the differences insimulated O₃ concentrations while the impact of differences in COemissions is relatively small. Although the CO emission estimate by CORPseems to be underestimated, there is no confidence to highlight one emissioninventory better than the others.

[学科分类] 大气科学